AMD vs NVDA

Which stock is riskier? We ran 5,000 simulations for each using real price history to compare what could happen over the next 12 months.

AMD

High Risk
Details →
Bear
-24.0%
Base
+18.9%
Bull
+86.7%
Loss Prob
37%
Volatility
53.3%

NVDA

Low Risk
Details →
Bear
+7.9%
Base
+69.2%
Bull
+163.7%
Loss Prob
16%
Volatility
52.1%
Detailed Comparison
MetricAMDNVDADiff
Bear Case-24.0%+7.9%-31.9%
Base Case+18.9%+69.2%-50.4%
Bull Case+86.7%+163.7%-77.0%
Loss Probability37%16%22pp
Volatility53.3%52.1%1.2pp
Expected Return+36.9%+93.4%-56.6%
Data Points1,2521,252
Summary

NVDA has lower loss probability (16% vs 37%), making it the less risky choice.

NVDA has a higher median expected return (+69.2% vs +18.9%).

NVDA has lower volatility (52.1% vs 53.3%), meaning smaller daily price swings.

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AMD vs NVDA: Risk Profile Comparison

How do AMD and NVDA compare in terms of risk? We ran 5,000 simulations for each stock using real historical price data to map out the range of possible outcomes over the next 12 months.

Based on historical patterns, AMD has a 37% loss probability over 12 months, while NVDA sits at 16%. Historically, NVDA has shown lower downside risk.

On the return side, NVDA has a higher median simulated return (+69.2%) compared to AMD (+18.9%). Lower risk doesn't always correlate with lower returns.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.