AMZN vs MSFT

Metric	AMZN	MSFT	Diff
Bear Case	-22.0%	-10.2%	-11.8%
Base Case	+4.7%	+12.2%	-7.5%
Bull Case	+42.2%	+40.1%	+2.1%
Loss Probability	45%	33%	12pp
Volatility	35.3%	26.2%	9.1pp
Expected Return	+11.6%	+16.1%	-4.5%
Data Points	1,252	1,252	—

Metric

AMZN

MSFT

Diff

Bear Case

-22.0%

-10.2%

-11.8%

Base Case

+4.7%

+12.2%

-7.5%

Bull Case

+42.2%

+40.1%

+2.1%

Loss Probability

45%

33%

12pp

Volatility

35.3%

26.2%

9.1pp

Expected Return

+11.6%

+16.1%

-4.5%

Data Points

1,252

—

AMZN vs MSFT: Risk Profile Comparison

How do AMZN and MSFT compare in terms of risk? We ran 5,000 simulations for each stock using real historical price data to map out the range of possible outcomes over the next 12 months.

Based on historical patterns, AMZN has a 45% loss probability over 12 months, while MSFT sits at 33%. Historically, MSFT has shown lower downside risk.

On the return side, MSFT has a higher median simulated return (+12.2%) compared to AMZN (+4.7%). Lower risk doesn't always correlate with lower returns.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

AMZN

MSFT

Own AMZN or MSFT? Monitor Your Portfolio Risk

AMZN vs MSFT: Risk Profile Comparison

Want to Track Both in Your Portfolio?

Important Note