JPM vs BAC

Which stock is riskier? We ran 5,000 simulations for each using real price history to compare what could happen over the next 12 months.

JPM

Moderate Risk
Details →
Bear
-3.6%
Base
+18.6%
Bull
+46.2%
Loss Prob
25%
Volatility
24.3%

BAC

High Risk
Details →
Bear
-11.7%
Base
+11.2%
Bull
+38.7%
Loss Prob
35%
Volatility
26.9%
Detailed Comparison
MetricJPMBACDiff
Bear Case-3.6%-11.7%+8.1%
Base Case+18.6%+11.2%+7.4%
Bull Case+46.2%+38.7%+7.5%
Loss Probability25%35%-10pp
Volatility24.3%26.9%-2.5pp
Expected Return+22.2%+14.9%+7.3%
Data Points1,2521,252
Summary

JPM has lower loss probability (25% vs 35%), making it the less risky choice.

JPM has a higher median expected return (+18.6% vs +11.2%).

JPM has lower volatility (24.3% vs 26.9%), meaning smaller daily price swings.

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JPM vs BAC: Risk Profile Comparison

How do JPM and BAC compare in terms of risk? We ran 5,000 simulations for each stock using real historical price data to map out the range of possible outcomes over the next 12 months.

Based on historical patterns, JPM has a 25% loss probability over 12 months, while BAC sits at 35%. Historically, JPM has shown lower downside risk.

On the return side, JPM has a higher median simulated return (+18.6%) compared to BAC (+11.2%). Lower risk doesn't always correlate with lower returns.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.