META vs GOOG

Which stock is riskier? We ran 5,000 simulations for each using real price history to compare what could happen over the next 12 months.

META

High Risk
Details →
Bear
-15.4%
Base
+20.7%
Bull
+73.6%
Loss Prob
32%
Volatility
43.7%

GOOG

Moderate Risk
Details →
Bear
-3.2%
Base
+25.1%
Bull
+61.3%
Loss Prob
23%
Volatility
30.7%
Detailed Comparison
MetricMETAGOOGDiff
Bear Case-15.4%-3.2%-12.3%
Base Case+20.7%+25.1%-4.4%
Bull Case+73.6%+61.3%+12.3%
Loss Probability32%23%9pp
Volatility43.7%30.7%13.0pp
Expected Return+32.8%+31.1%+1.7%
Data Points1,2521,252
Summary

GOOG has lower loss probability (23% vs 32%), making it the less risky choice.

GOOG has a higher median expected return (+25.1% vs +20.7%).

GOOG has lower volatility (30.7% vs 43.7%), meaning smaller daily price swings.

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META vs GOOG: Risk Profile Comparison

How do META and GOOG compare in terms of risk? We ran 5,000 simulations for each stock using real historical price data to map out the range of possible outcomes over the next 12 months.

Based on historical patterns, META has a 32% loss probability over 12 months, while GOOG sits at 23%. Historically, GOOG has shown lower downside risk.

On the return side, GOOG has a higher median simulated return (+25.1%) compared to META (+20.7%). Lower risk doesn't always correlate with lower returns.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.