TSLA vs AAPL

Which stock is riskier? We ran 5,000 simulations for each using real price history to compare what could happen over the next 12 months.

TSLA

Very High Risk
Details →
Bear
-31.8%
Base
+11.9%
Bull
+87.0%
Loss Prob
42%
Volatility
60.3%

AAPL

Moderate Risk
Details →
Bear
-8.0%
Base
+15.5%
Bull
+47.3%
Loss Prob
29%
Volatility
27.8%
Detailed Comparison
MetricTSLAAAPLDiff
Bear Case-31.8%-8.0%-23.8%
Base Case+11.9%+15.5%-3.7%
Bull Case+87.0%+47.3%+39.7%
Loss Probability42%29%13pp
Volatility60.3%27.8%32.5pp
Expected Return+34.2%+20.6%+13.6%
Data Points1,2521,252
Summary

AAPL has lower loss probability (29% vs 42%), making it the less risky choice.

AAPL has a higher median expected return (+15.5% vs +11.9%).

AAPL has lower volatility (27.8% vs 60.3%), meaning smaller daily price swings.

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TSLA vs AAPL: Risk Profile Comparison

How do TSLA and AAPL compare in terms of risk? We ran 5,000 simulations for each stock using real historical price data to map out the range of possible outcomes over the next 12 months.

Based on historical patterns, TSLA has a 42% loss probability over 12 months, while AAPL sits at 29%. Historically, AAPL has shown lower downside risk.

On the return side, AAPL has a higher median simulated return (+15.5%) compared to TSLA (+11.9%). Lower risk doesn't always correlate with lower returns.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.