VOO vs ARKK

Which stock is riskier? We ran 5,000 simulations for each using real price history to compare what could happen over the next 12 months.

VOO

Moderate Risk
Details →
Bear
-0.9%
Base
+14.0%
Bull
+31.4%
Loss Prob
21%
Volatility
16.8%

ARKK

Very High Risk
Details →
Bear
-41.0%
Base
-11.6%
Bull
+29.4%
Loss Prob
61%
Volatility
47.0%
Detailed Comparison
MetricVOOARKKDiff
Bear Case-0.9%-41.0%+40.0%
Base Case+14.0%-11.6%+25.6%
Bull Case+31.4%+29.4%+2.0%
Loss Probability21%61%-39pp
Volatility16.8%47.0%-30.2pp
Expected Return+15.6%-2.4%+18.1%
Data Points1,2521,252
Summary

VOO has lower loss probability (21% vs 61%), making it the less risky choice.

VOO has a higher median expected return (+14.0% vs -11.6%).

VOO has lower volatility (16.8% vs 47.0%), meaning smaller daily price swings.

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VOO vs ARKK: Risk Profile Comparison

How do VOO and ARKK compare in terms of risk? We ran 5,000 simulations for each stock using real historical price data to map out the range of possible outcomes over the next 12 months.

Based on historical patterns, VOO has a 21% loss probability over 12 months, while ARKK sits at 61%. Historically, VOO has shown lower downside risk.

On the return side, VOO has a higher median simulated return (+14.0%) compared to ARKK (-11.6%). Lower risk doesn't always correlate with lower returns.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.