VOO vs VTI

Which stock is riskier? We ran 5,000 simulations for each using real price history to compare what could happen over the next 12 months.

VOO

Moderate Risk
Details →
Bear
-0.9%
Base
+14.0%
Bull
+31.4%
Loss Prob
21%
Volatility
16.8%

VTI

Moderate Risk
Details →
Bear
-2.5%
Base
+12.3%
Bull
+30.2%
Loss Prob
25%
Volatility
17.5%
Detailed Comparison
MetricVOOVTIDiff
Bear Case-0.9%-2.5%+1.5%
Base Case+14.0%+12.3%+1.6%
Bull Case+31.4%+30.2%+1.2%
Loss Probability21%25%-3pp
Volatility16.8%17.5%-0.6pp
Expected Return+15.6%+14.2%+1.4%
Data Points1,2521,252
Summary

VOO has lower loss probability (21% vs 25%), making it the less risky choice.

VOO has a higher median expected return (+14.0% vs +12.3%).

VOO has lower volatility (16.8% vs 17.5%), meaning smaller daily price swings.

Own VOO or VTI? Monitor Your Portfolio Risk

Connect your brokerage account to get real-time risk alerts — drawdown warnings, concentration risk, volatility spikes, and more. The same metrics hedge funds use.

No credit card required to start

VOO vs VTI: Risk Profile Comparison

How do VOO and VTI compare in terms of risk? We ran 5,000 simulations for each stock using real historical price data to map out the range of possible outcomes over the next 12 months.

Based on historical patterns, VOO has a 21% loss probability over 12 months, while VTI sits at 25%. Historically, VOO has shown lower downside risk.

On the return side, VOO has a higher median simulated return (+14.0%) compared to VTI (+12.3%). Lower risk doesn't always correlate with lower returns.

Want to Track Both in Your Portfolio?

If you own VOO, VTI, or both, YieldMirror can connect to your brokerage account and monitor your entire portfolio's risk in real-time. Get alerts when things change — drawdowns, concentration risk, volatility spikes.

It's like having a risk manager watching your portfolio 24/7. Start your free 7-day trial →

Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.