VOO vs VXUS

Which stock is riskier? We ran 5,000 simulations for each using real price history to compare what could happen over the next 12 months.

VOO

Moderate Risk
Details →
Bear
-0.9%
Base
+14.0%
Bull
+31.4%
Loss Prob
21%
Volatility
16.8%

VXUS

Moderate Risk
Details →
Bear
-4.5%
Base
+8.5%
Bull
+23.8%
Loss Prob
30%
Volatility
15.5%
Detailed Comparison
MetricVOOVXUSDiff
Bear Case-0.9%-4.5%+3.6%
Base Case+14.0%+8.5%+5.4%
Bull Case+31.4%+23.8%+7.6%
Loss Probability21%30%-8pp
Volatility16.8%15.5%1.3pp
Expected Return+15.6%+10.0%+5.6%
Data Points1,2521,252
Summary

VOO has lower loss probability (21% vs 30%), making it the less risky choice.

VOO has a higher median expected return (+14.0% vs +8.5%).

VXUS has lower volatility (15.5% vs 16.8%), meaning smaller daily price swings.

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VOO vs VXUS: Risk Profile Comparison

How do VOO and VXUS compare in terms of risk? We ran 5,000 simulations for each stock using real historical price data to map out the range of possible outcomes over the next 12 months.

Based on historical patterns, VOO has a 21% loss probability over 12 months, while VXUS sits at 30%. Historically, VOO has shown lower downside risk.

On the return side, VOO has a higher median simulated return (+14.0%) compared to VXUS (+8.5%). Lower risk doesn't always correlate with lower returns.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.