WMT vs COST

Which stock is riskier? We ran 5,000 simulations for each using real price history to compare what could happen over the next 12 months.

WMT

Low Risk
Details →
Bear
+3.6%
Base
+24.4%
Bull
+48.7%
Loss Prob
16%
Volatility
21.0%

COST

Low Risk
Details →
Bear
+10.1%
Base
+30.8%
Bull
+54.6%
Loss Prob
9%
Volatility
20.0%
Detailed Comparison
MetricWMTCOSTDiff
Bear Case+3.6%+10.1%-6.6%
Base Case+24.4%+30.8%-6.4%
Bull Case+48.7%+54.6%-5.9%
Loss Probability16%9%6pp
Volatility21.0%20.0%1.0pp
Expected Return+27.2%+33.3%-6.1%
Data Points1,252783
Summary

COST has lower loss probability (9% vs 16%), making it the less risky choice.

COST has a higher median expected return (+30.8% vs +24.4%).

COST has lower volatility (20.0% vs 21.0%), meaning smaller daily price swings.

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WMT vs COST: Risk Profile Comparison

How do WMT and COST compare in terms of risk? We ran 5,000 simulations for each stock using real historical price data to map out the range of possible outcomes over the next 12 months.

Based on historical patterns, WMT has a 16% loss probability over 12 months, while COST sits at 9%. Historically, COST has shown lower downside risk.

On the return side, COST has a higher median simulated return (+30.8%) compared to WMT (+24.4%). Lower risk doesn't always correlate with lower returns.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.