CRK

$18.61High Risk

If you buy CRK today, what could happen in 12 months? We ran 5,000 simulations using 1,252 days of real price history to find out.

If You Invest $10,000 in CRK Today...

Bad Year
-21.0%
$7,897
Most Likely
+29.8%
$12,984
Good Year
+106.6%
$20,660
Chance of Losing Money
33%
Chance of Making Money
67%
Price Swings
57.9%
Expected Return
+52.6%
CRK vs S&P 500 (SPY)
MetricCRKSPYDiff
Bear Case-21.0%-1.6%-19.5%
Base Case+29.8%+13.3%+16.6%
Bull Case+106.6%+30.6%+76.0%
Loss Probability33%23%+10pp
Volatility57.9%17.1%+40.8pp
How We Calculated This

We looked at how CRK actually moved every single day from 2021-02-23 to 2026-02-18 (1,252 trading days). Then we randomly shuffled those daily moves and stitched them together to create 5,000 possible versions of the next 12 months. The "Bad Year" is what happened in the worst 20% of those versions, "Most Likely" is the middle, and "Good Year" is the best 20%.

This technique is called Monte Carlo simulation — the same method used by hedge funds, asset managers like Vanguard and BlackRock, and institutional risk teams worldwide. We're not predicting the future; we're showing you the range of outcomes that history suggests is possible.

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Understanding CRK's Risk Profile

Nobody can predict the stock market with certainty. But we can study historical behavior to understand the range of possibilities. Using 1,252 days of real CRK price data, we ran 5,000 "what if" scenarios to map out what the next 12 months could look like based on past patterns.

Think of it like this: if you could replay the next year 5,000 times with different market conditions (based on how CRK actually behaved in the past), here's what you'd see.

What the Numbers Mean for CRK

  • 33 out of 100 times, you'd lose money. That means if you invest $10,000 in CRK today, there's a 33% chance you'll have less than $10,000 in 12 months.
  • In a bad year, you could lose up to 21%. That's $2,103 gone from a $10,000 investment.
  • In a good year, you could gain up to 107%. Your $10,000 could grow to $20,660.
  • Compared to the S&P 500: CRK is riskier than just buying an index fund. The S&P 500 has a 23% chance of losing money vs CRK's 33%.

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If you already own CRK (or are thinking about buying it), YieldMirror can connect to your brokerage account and monitor your entire portfolio's risk in real-time. You'll get alerts when your portfolio drawdown exceeds your comfort level, when a single stock becomes too large a portion of your holdings, or when volatility spikes.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. The stock market is unpredictable, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.