IPOE

$19.54Very High Risk

If you buy IPOE today, what could happen in 12 months? We ran 5,000 simulations using 1,252 days of real price history to find out.

If You Invest $10,000 in IPOE Today...

Bad Year
-44.1%
$5,585
Most Likely
-1.6%
$9,840
Good Year
+70.5%
$17,055
Chance of Losing Money
51%
Chance of Making Money
49%
Price Swings
67.9%
Expected Return
+22.8%
IPOE vs S&P 500 (SPY)
MetricIPOESPYDiff
Bear Case-44.1%-1.6%-42.6%
Base Case-1.6%+13.3%-14.9%
Bull Case+70.5%+30.6%+39.9%
Loss Probability51%23%+28pp
Volatility67.9%17.1%+50.9pp
How We Calculated This

We looked at how IPOE actually moved every single day from 2021-02-23 to 2026-02-18 (1,252 trading days). Then we randomly shuffled those daily moves and stitched them together to create 5,000 possible versions of the next 12 months. The "Bad Year" is what happened in the worst 20% of those versions, "Most Likely" is the middle, and "Good Year" is the best 20%.

This technique is called Monte Carlo simulation — the same method used by hedge funds, asset managers like Vanguard and BlackRock, and institutional risk teams worldwide. We're not predicting the future; we're showing you the range of outcomes that history suggests is possible.

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Understanding IPOE's Risk Profile

Nobody can predict the stock market with certainty. But we can study historical behavior to understand the range of possibilities. Using 1,252 days of real IPOE price data, we ran 5,000 "what if" scenarios to map out what the next 12 months could look like based on past patterns.

Think of it like this: if you could replay the next year 5,000 times with different market conditions (based on how IPOE actually behaved in the past), here's what you'd see.

What the Numbers Mean for IPOE

  • 51 out of 100 times, you'd lose money. That means if you invest $10,000 in IPOE today, there's a 51% chance you'll have less than $10,000 in 12 months.
  • In a bad year, you could lose up to 44%. That's $4,415 gone from a $10,000 investment.
  • In a good year, you could gain up to 71%. Your $10,000 could grow to $17,055.
  • Compared to the S&P 500: IPOE is riskier than just buying an index fund. The S&P 500 has a 23% chance of losing money vs IPOE's 51%.

Want to Monitor Your Actual Portfolio?

If you already own IPOE (or are thinking about buying it), YieldMirror can connect to your brokerage account and monitor your entire portfolio's risk in real-time. You'll get alerts when your portfolio drawdown exceeds your comfort level, when a single stock becomes too large a portion of your holdings, or when volatility spikes.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. The stock market is unpredictable, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.