Understanding M's Risk Profile
Nobody can predict the stock market with certainty. But we can study historical behavior to understand the range of possibilities. Using 1,252 days of real M price data, we ran 5,000 "what if" scenarios to map out what the next 12 months could look like based on past patterns.
Think of it like this: if you could replay the next year 5,000 times with different market conditions (based on how M actually behaved in the past), here's what you'd see.
What the Numbers Mean for M
- 43 out of 100 times, you'd lose money. That means if you invest $10,000 in M today, there's a 43% chance you'll have less than $10,000 in 12 months.
- In a bad year, you could lose up to 29%. That's $2,881 gone from a $10,000 investment.
- In a good year, you could gain up to 80%. Your $10,000 could grow to $17,991.
- Compared to the S&P 500: M is riskier than just buying an index fund. The S&P 500 has a 23% chance of losing money vs M's 43%.
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Important Note
This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. The stock market is unpredictable, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor.