MCF

$3.22Very High Risk

If you buy MCF today, what could happen in 12 months? We ran 5,000 simulations using 200 days of real price history to find out.

If You Invest $10,000 in MCF Today...

Bad Year
-65.2%
$3,477
Most Likely
-39.3%
$6,069
Good Year
+4.8%
$10,476
Chance of Losing Money
78%
Chance of Making Money
22%
Price Swings
67.7%
Expected Return
-24.5%
MCF vs S&P 500 (SPY)
MetricMCFSPYDiff
Bear Case-65.2%-1.6%-63.7%
Base Case-39.3%+13.3%-52.6%
Bull Case+4.8%+30.6%-25.9%
Loss Probability78%23%+55pp
Volatility67.7%17.1%+50.6pp
How We Calculated This

We looked at how MCF actually moved every single day from 2021-02-23 to 2021-12-07 (200 trading days). Then we randomly shuffled those daily moves and stitched them together to create 5,000 possible versions of the next 12 months. The "Bad Year" is what happened in the worst 20% of those versions, "Most Likely" is the middle, and "Good Year" is the best 20%.

This technique is called Monte Carlo simulation — the same method used by hedge funds, asset managers like Vanguard and BlackRock, and institutional risk teams worldwide. We're not predicting the future; we're showing you the range of outcomes that history suggests is possible.

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Understanding MCF's Risk Profile

Nobody can predict the stock market with certainty. But we can study historical behavior to understand the range of possibilities. Using 200 days of real MCF price data, we ran 5,000 "what if" scenarios to map out what the next 12 months could look like based on past patterns.

Think of it like this: if you could replay the next year 5,000 times with different market conditions (based on how MCF actually behaved in the past), here's what you'd see.

What the Numbers Mean for MCF

  • 78 out of 100 times, you'd lose money. That means if you invest $10,000 in MCF today, there's a 78% chance you'll have less than $10,000 in 12 months.
  • In a bad year, you could lose up to 65%. That's $6,523 gone from a $10,000 investment.
  • In a good year, you could gain up to 5%. Your $10,000 could grow to $10,476.
  • Compared to the S&P 500: MCF is riskier than just buying an index fund. The S&P 500 has a 23% chance of losing money vs MCF's 78%.

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If you already own MCF (or are thinking about buying it), YieldMirror can connect to your brokerage account and monitor your entire portfolio's risk in real-time. You'll get alerts when your portfolio drawdown exceeds your comfort level, when a single stock becomes too large a portion of your holdings, or when volatility spikes.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. The stock market is unpredictable, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.