SKX

$63.13High Risk

If you buy SKX today, what could happen in 12 months? We ran 5,000 simulations using 1,144 days of real price history to find out.

If You Invest $10,000 in SKX Today...

Bad Year
-18.5%
$8,149
Most Likely
+11.7%
$11,171
Good Year
+54.5%
$15,446
Chance of Losing Money
39%
Chance of Making Money
61%
Price Swings
38.8%
Expected Return
+20.6%
SKX vs S&P 500 (SPY)
MetricSKXSPYDiff
Bear Case-18.5%-1.6%-16.9%
Base Case+11.7%+13.3%-1.6%
Bull Case+54.5%+30.6%+23.8%
Loss Probability39%23%+16pp
Volatility38.8%17.1%+21.7pp
How We Calculated This

We looked at how SKX actually moved every single day from 2021-02-23 to 2025-09-12 (1,144 trading days). Then we randomly shuffled those daily moves and stitched them together to create 5,000 possible versions of the next 12 months. The "Bad Year" is what happened in the worst 20% of those versions, "Most Likely" is the middle, and "Good Year" is the best 20%.

This technique is called Monte Carlo simulation — the same method used by hedge funds, asset managers like Vanguard and BlackRock, and institutional risk teams worldwide. We're not predicting the future; we're showing you the range of outcomes that history suggests is possible.

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Understanding SKX's Risk Profile

Nobody can predict the stock market with certainty. But we can study historical behavior to understand the range of possibilities. Using 1,144 days of real SKX price data, we ran 5,000 "what if" scenarios to map out what the next 12 months could look like based on past patterns.

Think of it like this: if you could replay the next year 5,000 times with different market conditions (based on how SKX actually behaved in the past), here's what you'd see.

What the Numbers Mean for SKX

  • 39 out of 100 times, you'd lose money. That means if you invest $10,000 in SKX today, there's a 39% chance you'll have less than $10,000 in 12 months.
  • In a bad year, you could lose up to 19%. That's $1,851 gone from a $10,000 investment.
  • In a good year, you could gain up to 54%. Your $10,000 could grow to $15,446.
  • Compared to the S&P 500: SKX is riskier than just buying an index fund. The S&P 500 has a 23% chance of losing money vs SKX's 39%.

Want to Monitor Your Actual Portfolio?

If you already own SKX (or are thinking about buying it), YieldMirror can connect to your brokerage account and monitor your entire portfolio's risk in real-time. You'll get alerts when your portfolio drawdown exceeds your comfort level, when a single stock becomes too large a portion of your holdings, or when volatility spikes.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. The stock market is unpredictable, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.