Understanding VUG's Risk Profile
Nobody can predict the stock market with certainty. But we can study historical behavior to understand the range of possibilities. Using 1,252 days of real VUG price data, we ran 5,000 "what if" scenarios to map out what the next 12 months could look like based on past patterns.
Think of it like this: if you could replay the next year 5,000 times with different market conditions (based on how VUG actually behaved in the past), here's what you'd see.
What the Numbers Mean for VUG
- 30 out of 100 times, you'd lose money. That means if you invest $10,000 in VUG today, there's a 30% chance you'll have less than $10,000 in 12 months.
- In a bad year, you could lose up to 7%. That's $701 gone from a $10,000 investment.
- In a good year, you could gain up to 36%. Your $10,000 could grow to $13,642.
- Compared to the S&P 500: VUG is riskier than just buying an index fund. The S&P 500 has a 23% chance of losing money vs VUG's 30%.
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Important Note
This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. The stock market is unpredictable, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor.