Understanding XLU's Risk Profile
Nobody can predict the stock market with certainty. But we can study historical behavior to understand the range of possibilities. Using 1,252 days of real XLU price data, we ran 5,000 "what if" scenarios to map out what the next 12 months could look like based on past patterns.
Think of it like this: if you could replay the next year 5,000 times with different market conditions (based on how XLU actually behaved in the past), here's what you'd see.
What the Numbers Mean for XLU
- 26 out of 100 times, you'd lose money. That means if you invest $10,000 in XLU today, there's a 26% chance you'll have less than $10,000 in 12 months.
- In a bad year, you could lose up to 3%. That's $299 gone from a $10,000 investment.
- In a good year, you could gain up to 29%. Your $10,000 could grow to $12,905.
- Compared to the S&P 500: XLU is riskier than just buying an index fund. The S&P 500 has a 23% chance of losing money vs XLU's 26%.
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Important Note
This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. The stock market is unpredictable, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor.