SPY vs TSLA

Which stock is riskier? We ran 5,000 simulations for each using real price history to compare what could happen over the next 12 months.

SPY

Moderate Risk
Details →
Bear
-1.6%
Base
+13.3%
Bull
+30.6%
Loss Prob
23%
Volatility
17.1%

TSLA

Very High Risk
Details →
Bear
-31.8%
Base
+11.9%
Bull
+87.0%
Loss Prob
42%
Volatility
60.3%
Detailed Comparison
MetricSPYTSLADiff
Bear Case-1.6%-31.8%+30.3%
Base Case+13.3%+11.9%+1.4%
Bull Case+30.6%+87.0%-56.4%
Loss Probability23%42%-20pp
Volatility17.1%60.3%-43.2pp
Expected Return+15.1%+34.2%-19.1%
Data Points1,2521,252
Summary

SPY has lower loss probability (23% vs 42%), making it the less risky choice.

SPY has a higher median expected return (+13.3% vs +11.9%).

SPY has lower volatility (17.1% vs 60.3%), meaning smaller daily price swings.

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SPY vs TSLA: Risk Profile Comparison

How do SPY and TSLA compare in terms of risk? We ran 5,000 simulations for each stock using real historical price data to map out the range of possible outcomes over the next 12 months.

Based on historical patterns, SPY has a 23% loss probability over 12 months, while TSLA sits at 42%. Historically, SPY has shown lower downside risk.

On the return side, SPY has a higher median simulated return (+13.3%) compared to TSLA (+11.9%). Lower risk doesn't always correlate with lower returns.

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Important Note

This is a simulation based on historical data, not a prediction. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Disclaimer: Hypothetical simulation based on historical prices. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.